Nuclear Risk Reduction

Deteriorating regional stability, increased efforts among U.S. adversaries to develop new nuclear capabilities, expanding stockpiles of nuclear material, and vulnerabilities around emerging technology and terrorism are converging to create a unique risk environment around the deliberate use or potentially the accidental detonation of a nuclear weapon. The escalation risks of such an event could spiral into a larger and possibly irrevocable nuclear conflict. With the ongoing war in Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats that he could use nuclear weapons, Americans have good reason to fear a nuclear catastrophe.

At the same time, the frameworks for reducing nuclear risk, preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and increasing strategic stability are fraying. Putin has suspended Russia’s participation in the bilateral New START treaty, the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. If Iran successfully develops a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia and other states may seek to follow in their footsteps. China, which currently has a nuclear arsenal less than a tenth the size of that of the United States and Russia, continues to pursue its aggressive nuclear buildup. Insecurities on the Korean Peninsula and a growing lack of confidence in U.S. extended deterrence is fueling a once-taboo debate in U.S.-allied South Korea for developing an indigenous nuclear weapons program. After four decades of steady decline in global nuclear weapons inventories, we now risk the launch of a new and more complex nuclear arms race among the United States, Russia, and China.